Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 86,571
2 South Dakota 76,056
3 Iowa 61,233
4 Wisconsin 58,764
5 Nebraska 53,662
6 Utah 49,581
7 Idaho 47,778
8 Illinois 47,298
9 Montana 46,310
10 Tennessee 46,060
11 Mississippi 45,630
12 Alabama 45,041
13 Arkansas 45,033
14 Louisiana 44,675
15 Kansas 43,135
16 Missouri 42,502
17 Wyoming 42,250
18 Rhode Island 42,032
19 Minnesota 42,024
20 Florida 41,778
21 Nevada 40,284
22 Oklahoma 40,032
23 Indiana 39,334
24 Georgia 39,069
25 Arizona 38,644
26 South Carolina 38,436
27 Texas 38,370
28 Alaska 34,049
29 Kentucky 32,504
30 New Jersey 32,347
31 New Mexico 32,219
32 North Carolina 30,371
33 Delaware 30,348
34 Colorado 30,079
35 Michigan 29,682
36 New York 29,482
37 Maryland 28,151
38 Massachusetts 27,996
39 District of Columbia 27,359
40 Ohio 26,729
41 California 26,717
42 Connecticut 26,641
43 Virginia 24,223
44 Puerto Rico 24,172
45 Pennsylvania 21,947
46 West Virginia 19,710
47 Washington 18,506
48 Oregon 13,886
49 Hawaii 11,833
50 New Hampshire 11,254
51 Maine 6,965
52 Vermont 4,974

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Wyoming 1,481
2 North Dakota 1,353
3 Minnesota 1,236
4 Nebraska 1,201
5 South Dakota 1,168
6 Montana 1,115
7 Wisconsin 1,062
8 Iowa 1,018
9 Rhode Island 943
10 Illinois 927
11 Kansas 908
12 Indiana 858
13 Alaska 856
14 Utah 812
15 Colorado 738
16 Tennessee 730
17 Michigan 702
18 Idaho 700
19 New Mexico 697
20 Oklahoma 691
21 Missouri 687
22 Ohio 633
23 Connecticut 592
24 Nevada 525
25 Kentucky 474
26 West Virginia 470
27 Pennsylvania 431
28 Arkansas 412
29 Louisiana 408
30 New Jersey 404
31 Delaware 396
32 Arizona 361
33 Florida 344
34 Alabama 340
35 Texas 340
36 Massachusetts 329
37 Maryland 328
38 Washington 320
39 North Carolina 280
40 Mississippi 275
41 South Carolina 251
42 New Hampshire 243
43 California 241
44 District of Columbia 233
45 Virginia 232
46 Georgia 226
47 New York 209
48 Oregon 201
49 Puerto Rico 189
50 Maine 141
51 Vermont 139
52 Hawaii 32

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,870
2 New York 1,725
3 Massachusetts 1,503
4 Connecticut 1,338
5 Louisiana 1,324
6 Rhode Island 1,206
7 Mississippi 1,203
8 North Dakota 1,016
9 District of Columbia 935
10 Illinois 893
11 Arizona 868
12 Michigan 852
13 Georgia 826
14 Florida 821
15 South Carolina 807
16 Delaware 758
17 Indiana 746
18 Arkansas 743
19 Pennsylvania 736
20 South Dakota 727
21 Maryland 717
22 Texas 699
23 Alabama 673
24 Iowa 654
25 Nevada 631
26 New Mexico 602
27 Missouri 578
28 Tennessee 578
29 Minnesota 531
30 Montana 512
31 Ohio 493
32 Wisconsin 493
33 North Carolina 465
34 California 464
35 Colorado 456
36 Idaho 449
37 Virginia 449
38 Kansas 434
39 Nebraska 427
40 Kentucky 399
41 Oklahoma 390
42 New Hampshire 369
43 Washington 352
44 West Virginia 333
45 Puerto Rico 297
46 Wyoming 267
47 Utah 228
48 Oregon 184
49 Hawaii 156
50 Alaska 128
51 Maine 123
52 Vermont 94

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 18
2 Arkansas 9
3 Montana 9
4 Iowa 8
5 New Mexico 8
6 South Dakota 8
7 Idaho 7
8 Rhode Island 7
9 Wisconsin 7
10 Illinois 6
11 Indiana 6
12 Nebraska 6
13 Wyoming 6
14 Tennessee 5
15 Colorado 4
16 Michigan 4
17 Minnesota 4
18 Mississippi 4
19 Missouri 4
20 Nevada 4
21 West Virginia 4
22 Alabama 3
23 Connecticut 3
24 Kentucky 3
25 Massachusetts 3
26 North Carolina 3
27 Puerto Rico 3
28 Florida 2
29 Louisiana 2
30 Maryland 2
31 New Jersey 2
32 Oklahoma 2
33 Pennsylvania 2
34 South Carolina 2
35 Texas 2
36 Utah 2
37 Washington 2
38 Delaware 1
39 Georgia 1
40 Kansas 1
41 New York 1
42 Ohio 1
43 Oregon 1
44 Virginia 1
45 Alaska 0
46 Arizona 0
47 California 0
48 District of Columbia 0
49 Hawaii 0
50 Maine 0
51 New Hampshire 0
52 Vermont 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Norton Kansas 185,600 1 99
Lincoln Arkansas 181,588 2 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 179,249 3 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 177,409 4 99
Buffalo South Dakota 170,234 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 59,658 402 87
Richland South Carolina 45,849 894 71
York South Carolina 29,785 1894 39
Orange California 21,468 2416 23
Pierce Washington 16,522 2639 16

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,208 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 6,458 2 99
Hancock Georgia 5,321 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 5,238 4 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 5 99
Richland South Carolina 693 1090 65
Davidson Tennessee 562 1358 56
Orange California 481 1555 50
York South Carolina 434 1699 45
Pierce Washington 322 2041 35

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons